The notion that casino patrons can detect pokie payout percentages has been proven to be a myth. After a nine-month study with two pairs of pokie machines under scrutiny, researchers in Australia have all but shattered this long-held belief.
Sydney Investigation
According to a report published in Phys.org, an investigation led by the University of Nevada conducted in a suburban ‘locals’ casino in Sydney took a closer look at matching Tokyo Rose and Dragon’s Fortune X games. The report includes an experiment that varied the amount of player cash kept by the machines between 14.93% and 7.98% before calculating each unit’s ‘T-win’ value.
‘Pars’ and ‘T-win’
‘Par’ is defined by researchers in the report as what an individual cash machine keeps over a certain period, while the multiplication of this value by the unit’s coin-in rate is what defines as the investigation’s ‘T-win’ assessment.
Led by Anthony Lucas from UNLV’s William F Harrah College of Hospitality and former gaming industry operations analyst, the investigation reveals that this value is of special importance to casinos that may be looking to optimize their real money pokie revenues.
Lucas is reported to have stated, “I think some operators are naturally and understandably cautious of new information that challenges traditional industry practices. But we must consider how we know what we know. This is where our work takes on a Moneyball-like aspect; questioning the wisdom of widely held beliefs when data shows that a new way of thinking may be better.”
Virtually No movement
The report in Phys.org goes on to explain that Lucas had been assisted in his probe by San Diego State University’s Katherine Spilde. Together, they found that the difference between ‘low’ and ‘high’ games was virtually non-existent. This indicated that there is no statistically significant indication of play migration. Furthermore, any lowered ‘par’ had been alleviated by higher ‘T-win’ rates.
Lucas goes on to state further, “Casino operators should take note of the substantial increases in ‘T-win’ as they are responsible for optimizing revenues, not coin-in.”
Rise in Revenue
What the outcome of this inquiry might mean for casino operators in the long run, he explains, is that they will now be able to continue to meet the needs of players, while optimizing its own revenues, adding, “Ultimately, operators are responsible for optimizing slot revenues, which is no simple task. Knowing which ‘par’ will produce the greatest win is most helpful but the optimization issue becomes more complex when the possibility of player detection is introduced. Put simply, our results suggest that greater ‘pars’ produce greater revenues without the risk of brand damage resulting from ‘price’ detection.”
